INTO THE FRAY: Gaza 2040-If not incentivized emigration, what?

For your perusal, my latest INTO THE FRAY column

Gaza 2040-If not incentivized emigration, what?   

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The current situation in Gaza—and the accompanying misery—are the direct result of the misguided attempt to foist statehood on the Palestinian-Arabs.

It appears this week on the following sites (in alphabetical order):


Several short excerpts:

…Arafat was sober, businesslike, almost in awe of the scale of the problems that he faces in turning this impoverished strip of land into the paradise that many of his people expect will come from self-ruleLos Angeles Times, July 2, 1994 – On Yasser Arafat’s return to Gaza following the signing of the Oslo Accords.

We predicted some years ago that Gaza would fast become unlivable on a host of indicators and that deadline is actually approaching even faster than we predicted — from health access, to energy to waterRobert Piper, Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations Development Coordination, The Times of Israel, July 11, 2017.

We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created themAn aphorism attributed to Albert Einstein.

Over a quarter-century has passed since Israel first permitted the arch-terrorist, Yasser Arafat, access to the Gaza Strip in July 1994. He entered the coastal enclave in jubilant triumph to the cheers of thousands, who lined the streets and squares to welcome him. The mood of euphoria reflected the naïve optimism of the time, which, as some more sober souls warned, soon proved tragically unfounded…

Gaza: The ultimate indictment of the two-state prescription

Life and rubble in Gaza

…Sadly, but not entirely unexpectedly—at least for those who opposed the Oslo process—life for the average Gazan has been in a steep downward spiral—particularly after the 2005 unilateral evacuation of the Strip by Israel…In many ways, Gaza has become the ultimate indictment of the two-state, land-for-peace prescription.

Diversion of resources from civilian sector to military

…rather than turn their energies towards developing their society and economy, the Gazans focused on devoting their resources and efforts to enhancing their abilities for aggression against Israel—with missiles and rockets, terror tunnels and fortifications…This massive diversion of resources from civilian development to mustering military might has had a severe effect on the Gazan man-in-the-street…

The futility of international aid

Hamas and weapons

Seen against the grim realities that prevail—and have prevailed unabated for decades, this aid has failed miserably in achieving any, and all, of its declared goals!

…As the living conditions in Gaza deteriorate for all, except a privileged few, an increasing number of reports warn that the entire Strip will become unfit for human habitation in the foreseeable future—see, for example, here, here, here, and here…Indeed, it should be pointed out that this dismal situation has been reached despite the fact that Israel is providing the hostile Gazans, whose leaders called on them to rip out the hearts of the Israelis and to eat their livers, with significant amounts of power and water…

What fate Gaza?

Hamas leader Sinwar, urging slaughter

…This, of course, should concentrate minds on what fate awaits Gaza and Gazans in 15-20 years’ time…most official estimates put the current population at around 1.85 million. With an estimated rate of growth just under 3% , the projected population will soon top 2 million. Whatever the real accuracy of these figures, the picture they paint is a dire one—the dwindling of already insufficient life sustaining resources and a rapid growth of the population consuming them…

The Quarantine: Consequence, not cause

…Of course, many of Israel’s detractors will attempt to lay the blame for this bleak situation on the “Occupation” and the “Siege”. But, this is merely a flimsy pretext, that is sounding increasingly hollow and must be rejected…the quarantine of Gaza is the consequence, not the cause, of Arab violence against the Jewish state. Accordingly, demands to remove it are inherently anti-Semitic since they imply Jews should die meekly and give their Judeocidal enemies unfettered access to their compliant victims…

Wide-spread desire to emigrate

…In light of the evermore harrowing living conditions and inclement prospects for the future, it is hardly surprising to learn that there is accumulating evidence that more and more Gazans desire to leave the Strip and seek their future elsewhere. It is this emerging propensity that holds the clue to arriving at the only conceivable policy that can allow the Gazan public to extricate itself from its increasingly daunting predicament…

Gaza: What would Albert Einstein say?

…Thus, rather than pouring millions into inoperative desalination plants and rusting sewage treatment works, the aid should be in the form of generous individual relocation grants to allow non-belligerent Gazans to seek a safer, more secure future elsewhere, outside the “circle of violence” that inevitably awaits them if they stay…Indeed, if there is any other way—that has not been tried before and failed—to address the predicament in Gaza—i.e. an increasing population reliant on decreasing resources—I would be more than intrigued to learn of it.


As usual your talkbacks/comments/critiques welcome,

Best wishes,


Martin Sherman is the founder & executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies

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