INTO THE FRAY: A Palestinian State? What could possibly go wrong?

For your perusal, my latest INTO THE FRAY column:

A Palestinian State? What could possibly go wrong?

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There is precious little reason to believe that any Palestinian state established in areas evacuated by Israel would not swiftly degenerate into a mega-Gaza overlooking greater Tel Aviv.

It appears this week on the following sites (in alphabetical order):


Several short excerpts:

The nightmare stories of the Likud are well known. After all, they promised rockets from Gaza as well. For a year, Gaza has been largely under the rule of the Palestinian Authority. There has not been a single rocket. Nor will there be any … – Yitzhak Rabin, Radio interview, July 24, 1995.

In the history of international politics, there have been numerous ideas that proved both myopic and moronic. But few—if any—have proved more so than the ill-conceived idea of foisting statehood on the Palestinian-Arabs. Compounding the folly of this fatal fiasco is the fact that it was not only completely predictable—but persistently predicted.

Corrupt kleptocracy or tyrannical theocracy 

PLO chairman Yasser Arafat entering the Gaza Strip, 1994. (photo credit: REUTERS)
PLO chairman Arafat entering the Gaza Strip, 1994. (photo credit: REUTERS)

After all, there is little reason to believe that any such state would be anything other than a misogynistic, homophobic Muslim majority tyranny and a bastion for Islamist terror groups–whose hallmarks would be gender discrimination against woman/girls; persecution of homosexuals, prosecution of political dissidents, and suppression of non-Muslim faiths. Indeed, its liberal-Left devotees have certainly never provided any remotely compelling argument why it would not be.

Gaza: The gravest indictment of two-statism

Demolition of Jewish settlements in Gaza, 2005
Demolition of Jewish settlements in Gaza, 2005

Gaza, where the misguided experiment in two-statsim was first initiated…has now become its gravest indictment—for both Jews and Arab alike…For Arabs in Gaza, the specter of “humanitarian disaster” hovers over the general population, awash in untreated sewage flows, with well over 90% of the water supply unfit for drinking, electrical power available for only a few hours a day, and unemployment rates soaring to anything between 40-60%…

Huge enhancement of terrorist capabilities 

Iron Dome missile defense system in action during 2014 Operation Protective Edge
Iron Dome missile defense system in action during 2014 Operation Protective Edge

Moreover, if there were any hopes that Israel’s departure from Gaza would spur the Palestinian-Arab leadership to divert the focus of its efforts from terror-related activity to constructive nation-building, they were soon to be dispelled…Indeed, quite the opposite occurred. Exploiting the absence of the IDF, the Palestinian-Arab terror groups in Gaza embarked on a feverish drive to enhance their capabilities to inflict harm on Israel and Israelis.

Costly campaigns; considerable casualties

These campaigns inflicted considerable Israeli casualties—almost a hundred fatalities and well over a thousand wounded…Moreover, these campaigns cost the Israeli economy many billions of dollars—in direct military and civilian outlays, as well as lost production—as millions of Israelis remained huddled in shelters for weeks, with the country’s cities, towns and villages under repeated bombardment – see  here, here and here

Now imagine a giant Gaza overlooking Tel Aviv 

… if the IDF were to evacuate Judea-Samaria, there is little reason to believe that it would not follow the same path as Gaza and descend into tyrannical Islamist theocracy. Indeed, the proponents of such evacuation have not—and cannot—provide any persuasive assurance that it will not. Certainly, such an outcome cannot be discounted as totally implausible—and hence must be factored into Israel’s strategic planning as a possibility, with which it may well have to contend.

A giant Gaza overlooking Tel Aviv (cont.) 

… unlike Gaza, which has a 50 km border with Israel, any prospective Palestinian-Arab entity in Judea-Samaria would have a frontier of anything up to 500 km (and possibly more, depending on the exact parameters of the evacuated areas)… Moreover, unlike Gaza, which has no topographical superiority over its surrounding environs, the limestone hills of Judea-Samaria dominate virtually all of Israel’s major airfields (civilian and military); main seaports and naval bases; vital infrastructure installations (power generation and transmission, water, communications and transportation systems); centers of civilian government and military command; and 80 percent of the civilian population and commercial activity…

What could possible go wrong? 

… based on both past precedent and sober political analysis, there is every reason to believe—and precious little not to—that any Palestinian state established in any area evacuated by Israel would swiftly degenerate into a mega-Gaza, overlooking greater Tel Aviv—with all the attendant perils such an outcome would entail…So, in response to the question “What could possibly go wrong?” the answer must be “Pretty much everything”.

As usual your talkbacks/comments/critiques welcome,
Best wishes,

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