IISS vs INSS: David vs Goliath – Part III
Recently, INSS launched a “plan” purporting be a “Strategic Framwork” for addressing theongoing conflict with the Palestinian-Arabs.
In broad outline, the “plan” is based on the idea of unilateral Israeli “initiatives” (read “concessions”) to keep the increasingly discredited two-state formula on increasing needed “life support”, including:
(a) Renouncing Israeli claims to sovereignty over any territory beyond the security barrier;
(b) Freezing all construction/funding of, Jewish communities in that territory; but
(c) Keeping the IDF deployed there– allegedly to avoid the errors of the 2005 disengagement from Gaza.
Sadly, this is a foretold formula for disaster. For, it will unavoidably:
– Replicate the conditions that prevailed in South Lebanon prior to 2000—on the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv
– Entrap the IDF in open-ended occupation, whose duration is dependent exclusively on Palestinian-Arabs
– Culminate in unilateral withdrawal without any agreement
None of this is difficult for foresee!!
Replicating the conditions that prevailed in South Lebanon prior to 2000—on the fringes of Greater Tel Aviv
By advocating renunciation of claims to sovereignty over all of Judea-Samaria beyond the security barrier, on the one hand; with the continued deployment of the IDF in that territory, on the other, the INSS “plan” is in effect, calling for replicating precisely the conditions that prevailed in South Lebanon until the hasty unilateral IDF retreat in 2000.
Obviously then, this formula for deploying the IDF for an indeterminate period, in territory over which Israel lays no sovereign claim—and hence, by implication, acknowledges that others have such claims—creates an unsustainable political configuration.
Entrapping the IDF in open-ended occupation, whose duration is dependent exclusively on Palestinian-Arabs
The “plan” envisions this IDF deployment continuing until some acceptable arrangement with the Palestinian-Arabs can be reached. But what if no such agreement materializes?
Indeed, all the Palestinian-Arabs need to do to ensnare the IDF in an open-ended “occupation” is… well, nothing.
All they need to do is wait for the IDF to become caught up in what will inevitably become an ongoing guerrilla campaign—an easy target for attacks by a hostile population, backed by armed Palestinian security services (which INSS does not recommend dismantling).
Culminating in unilateral withdrawal in slow motion
Soon, a combination of mounting domestic and international pressure will build up for the IDF to withdraw—similar to that which precipitated the IDF pullout from South Lebanon.
On the domestic front, recurring IDF casualties in a “foreign land” will result in incessant calls to “bring our boys back home”.
On the international front, increasing impatience with open-ended “occupation” will create growing demands for the removal of Israeli troops.
Eventually, continued IDF deployment will no longer be tenable and evacuation will become inevitable—without any adequate political settlement or sustainable security arrangements.
Just like in South Lebanon.
This then, is the inevitable chain of events that will result from adopting the INSS plan.
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